Taking a page from the academic paper presented
to the central bankers' conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming in late
August by Michael Woodford, the U.S. central bank on Thursday said it
would continue to buy financial assets until there is a "substantial"
improvement in the labor market. The Fed also said it would keep
interest rates very low well after the economic recovery strengthens.
At
a press conference in Washington D.C., Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke cited
Woodford's research and called him a friend as he explained the
conditions attached to the Fed's third round of bond buying, known as
quantitative easing, or QE3.
Woodford, a Columbia University
professor and one of the foremost thinkers on how economies can escape
from the threat of deflation, welcomed the Fed's new approach in an
interview with Reuters and predicted it would help stabilize financial
markets no matter what news - good or bad - is on the horizon.
"The
uncertainty about how things might be unfolding next is one of the
biggest obstacles to the economy improving, so how you affect
perceptions is really critical at this point to what they're trying to
do," he told Reuters.
Unlike the Fed's first two rounds of
quantitative easing, in which the Fed brought about by $2.3 trillion
worth of securities over time, Woodford argued that the plan unveiled on
Thursday would not give the impression that the central bank has grown
more pessimistic about the economy.
The central bank's new
strategy assures individuals, businesses and investors that it is
committed to both act, and then to shut down its unconventional policy
actions when the time is right, Woodford said.
"They're making
bad news less destabilizing in one direction, and making really good
news less destabilizing in the other direction," he said.
On the
other hand, the first two rounds of Fed bond purchases as well as the
Fed's series of conditional pledges to keep interest rates low until a
future date - the latest of which is mid-2015 - could be interpreted as
"reason to wait and delay future spending," Woodford said.
The
U.S. economy is forecast to grow at around 2.0 percent this year, a
better rate than is expected in most European countries. But the euro
zone crisis and the so-called "fiscal cliff" of possible U.S. tax rises
and spending cuts due in early 2013 threaten to derail the U.S. economic
recovery.
FRIEND AND FORMER COLLEAGUE
The Fed's third
round of quantitative easing kicks off with $40 billion in purchases of
mortgage-backed securities per month, an aggressive and "open-ended"
plan to boost the sputtering economic recovery and to get Americans back
to work.
Asset purchases will continue "if the outlook for the
labor market does not improve substantially," the Fed said on Thursday,
adding it expects "a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will
remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery
strengthens."
At his press conference Bernanke cited Woodford's
recent paper on monetary policy options when interest rates are near
zero. The paper argued the best way to defeat stubborn economic weakness
is to keep monetary policy very stimulative for longer than would be
advisable under typical rate-setting rules which weigh both growth and
inflation.
"I think the thrust of his research is that forward
guidance and communication about future policy is in fact the most
powerful tool that central banks have when interest rates are close to
zero," Bernanke said, calling Woodford, a former colleague, co-author
and friend.
ECHOES OF EVANS
Woodford, for his part, was
quick to credit another respected economist who has pushed to tie Fed
policy even more explicitly to specific economic yardsticks: Chicago Fed
President Charles Evans.
Evans, one of the most dovish of Fed
policymakers, has for a year advocated that the central bank promise to
keep an easy money stance until either the jobless rate falls to 7.0
percent or inflation rises to 3.0 percent. U.S. unemployment is now 8.1
percent and inflation is below the Fed's 2.0 percent target.
"They're
clearly saying both of the things Evans was suggesting, it's just that
they're not saying it with the numbers," Woodford said of the Fed's
policy-setting committee.
"I would certainly read it as a very
close cousin to what Evans was proposing to say, except stating it in
general terms rather than with numbers."
Time will tell whether
the Fed's new brand of easing has a more direct influence on the
economy, or whether it dulls the erratic reactions that financial
markets have had to past asset-purchase plans.
The S&P 500
stock index reached its highest level in nearly five years on Thursday,
while U.S. Treasury bond prices ended the day mostly higher.
"To
the extent this strategy works, history may look back on Woodford's
Jackson Hole advocacy of conditional commitment as a turning point in
the way the Fed attacked the sluggish recovery," wrote JPMorgan
economist Michael Feroli in a research note.
"To the extent this strategy doesn't work, at least Bernanke can argue that he threw everything he had at the problem."
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